The regular season is drawing to a close, which means it’s almost time to select a new MVP. Dmitry Gerchikov discusses the favorites in the race, weighing the good and the bad in each candidate’s resume.
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In the modern digital age, analysis relies on an endless stream of data, detailing every possible move on the court. With the help of a few tables and charts, anyone can prove a player’s value or lack thereof. At times it can feel like any assertion (even the most illogical) can be justified, as long as there’s data to accompany it. Believe me, someone will find it. Given the volume of information available now to the public, manipulating the data is quite easy.
As a result, in ranking my MVP candidates, I didn’t rely solely on numbers and formulas. I made sure to take into consideration the other qualities that help form a player’s profile.
Nando De Colo, CSKA
Stats: 13 games, 23.4 minutes, 18.2 points (two-point – 67.1%, three-point – 40.5%, free throws – 92.7%), 5.1 assists, 2.1 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 20.1 efficiency rating
Plus-minus: +14.1
Team: 1st place (20-2)
For: The League’s most efficient player on offense embodies CSKA’s balance and even-keeled approach. In contrast to the fiery Milos Teodosic, De Colo is as methodical and cold-blooded as they come: a real-life assassin on the court. The Frenchman’s efficiency is startling, whether he’s shooting or passing the ball. His presence inspires confidence and poise in his teammates, because they know they can always trust him with the ball when the offense begins to sputter.
De Colo is also a force on the defensive end. Yes, he’s not as sticky or aggressive in man-to-man as Aaron Jackson. But he’s still one of CSKA’s best backcourt defenders, hands down. The Frenchman knows how to avoid sloppy fouls ala Teodosic, avoids switching when there’s no reason to and isn’t afraid of contact. Even better, he doesn’t have trouble switching to the ‘2’ and taking on more athletic opponents.
Against: Those opposed to De Colo’s candidacy will immediately point out the guard’s trouble staying healthy this season. He’s only played in 13 VTB United League games, a little more than half. If you dig a little deeper, the numbers get worse. De Colo is averaging a meager 23 minutes per outing, or about 300 total minutes this season.
Even so, the Army Men have been able to cruise through the regular season with only two losses to date. Giving Nando the MVP could be seen as unfair to his rivals, most of whom have spent at least 50% more time on the court, exerting themselves on offense and defense.
It’s also important to remember CSKA’s depth. Dimitris Itoudis can spread out playing time during games and week-to-week, helping De Colo thrive in limited action without needing to force anything. Plus, he’s surrounded by talented teammates who can bail him out when necessary. With CSKA continuing to win, De Colo could focus on playing smart without much external pressure. Compare that to other MVP hopefuls, who are asked to do much more on less talented rosters.
Alexey Shved, Khimki
Stats: 17 games, 28.5 minutes, 22.6 points (two-point – 53.0%, three-point – 43.2%, free throws – 83.5%), 5.5 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 21.4 efficiency rating
Plus-minus: +13.9
Team: 3rd place (17-4)
For: The top scorer in the League has to be on this list. Averaging nearly 23 points per game, Shved is leaving the competition in the dust, while proving he can play at multiple positions. Shved can attack the basket like a shooting guard, or as a playmaker. He’s consistent, scoring in double digits in every game this season. He’s also taken on a leadership role. Shved does a great job of utilizing his athleticism and terrific shooting form to benefit the team on the fast break and in the halfcourt. He’s also not afraid to rebound and draw fouls.
Against: Khimki hasn’t been able to defeat its biggest rival and the leading championship contenders this season. Making matters worse, the games against CSKA weren’t even close. But Shved didn’t play either time, perhaps giving the Yellow-Blues something of an excuse. Of course, you need more than a superstar to overcome the Army machine, as results in the VTB United League and EuroLeague have demonstrated this year. Also, can we really put Shved in the MVP discussion if he never even faced CSKA, while padding his stats against teams like Avtodor, Tsmoki and Parma? It doesn’t make for a great role model, though there are some parallels to Russell Westbrook’s statistical shenanigans in Oklahoma City. That’s why it’s hard to make Alexey the front-runner for MVP, even if Khimki winds up in 2nd place in the standings.
Keith Langford, UNICS
Stats: 19 games, 30.5 minutes, 19.0 points (two-point – 57.8%, three-point – 37.2%, free throws – 81.1%), 3.5 assists, 2.7 rebounds, 17.3 efficiency rating
Plus-minus: +3.4
Team: 5th place (14-8)
For: When you look at UNICS’s spot in the standings, it’s hard to believe a team with such a short bench and painfully unbalanced roster could be so high up. Nonetheless, Kazan was even in 1st place for a stretch and could still finish 4th. It’s all because Langford has been playing at an unbelievable level for much of the season. Upset, perhaps, by Eurohoops ranking him outside the EuroLeague’s top 50 to start the season, he’s been on fire ever since. The American sniper set a new VTB United League scoring record (42 points!) and led the EuroLeague scoring race. Without Langford, Kazan looks like a fairly average team, even by Russian standards, with Colom and Parakhouski’s pick-and-roll the only other viable option on offense. Langford has carried this team all season, even though it’s been a largely thankless task. Nonetheless, the veteran has easily had one of the impressive individual campaigns in the League and across Europe in 2016-17.
Against: Langford has slowed down in recent week with his stats beginning to decline, alongside Kazan’s results. The team has dropped to last place in the EuroLeague, setting a new club record for losses in a season, while several games separate UNICS from the top four teams in the VTB League. It’s understandable. Langford has been asked to do a tremendous amount and it’s not surprising to see him finally show some cracks. He also had to overcome an injury midway through the season. But he played at such a high level for so long, it’s hard not to get greedy. Given recent results, unfortunately, Langford’s MVP candidacy is showing some wear and tear.
Sergey Karasev, Zenit
Stats: 17 games, 24.2 minutes, 16.4 points (two-point – 50.5%, three-point – 37.0%, free throws – 91.6%), 2.5 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 14.8 efficiency rating
Plus-minus: +8.4
Team: 2nd place (18-3)
For: If a team that was predicted to finish outside the top-four is sitting in 2nd place with only a few weeks remaining in the regular season, it deserves some respect. With only three losses and a home win against CSKA, Zenit is turning heads. Given that the team’s leading scorer, Sergey Karasev, also ranks in the League’s top 10 for efficiency rating, he certainly deserves a shot at the MVP. There will be opposition: Karasev, like De Colo, hasn’t played big minutes, averaging only 24 per game. But his situation is a bit different. Whereas CSKA’s roster is loaded with players that can take over a game in a heartbeat, St. Petersburg has a much more modest profile. Both Timma and Landry need help getting looks on offense. Markovic is a distributor and helper, not an alpha-dog slasher. Players like this are invaluable to a team, but they can’t close a game in the final minutes, when it’s “one vs. the world.” Mbakwe and White, meanwhile, are even more limited with regards to offensive weapons, serving as talented role players.
It’s also important to note that Sergey attracts a lot of attention on defense, stretching defenders, while maintaining an impressive shooting percentage. He also pays close attention to his free throws, which he’s great at drawing. His ability to go one-on-one, which he developed in the NBA, make him dangerous in iso’s, an approach Zenit generally only uses when he has the ball. Karasev’s utter lack of fear against big-name opponents help him hold his own, even against a double or triple-team. To summarize, Karasev is something of a heroic figure for his club and the League, willing to join any fight and emerge on top more often than not. Projecting his scoring and aggressiveness onto the team’s rise this season, it would be a crime to not include him in the MVP hunt.
Against: Karasev’s fireworks on offense are impressive. Even elite defensive teams have to watch out for the Russian swingman. But here’s the issue: There’s another player on his team that one could argue boast better stats! We’re talking about Stefan Markovich, who does a little bit of everything, gluing together Zenit’s front and backcourts. He’s more deliberate with the ball than Karasev, makes more incisive passes and commits very few turnovers. When you look at the big picture, it becomes clear that he’s the one keeping Zenit running smoothly. If Karasev struggles to be #1 on his own team, how can we really take him seriously as an MVP candidate?
We’ll also point out Karasev’s struggles on defense. If his own dad lights into him on occasion during timeouts, we experts would be remiss not mentioning his shortcomings. A lot of the time, his mistakes seem to be more mental than anything else. But that’s no excuse. Even though he can often compensate by knocking down a big shot at the other end, it’s a serious ding in the resume for an MVP hopeful. You can be sure the voters will take everything into consideration when going over Karasev’s candidacy.
